Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-21

PHI @ CHC

Home plate: Vic Carapazza

The grade leaned — the ledger says which way.

B-
Umpire Grade
91.8% accurate
1.1
Run Favor
runs, CHC
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Vic Carapazza called the 170 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 156 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Edmundo Sosa — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Trea Turner — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Nico Hoerner — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.695 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Moisés Ballesteros vs Orion Kerkering
  2. 2+0.288 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Edmundo Sosa vs Riley Martin
  3. 3+0.205 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Dansby Swanson vs Orion Kerkering

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Edmundo Sosa — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Carson Kelly — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Trea Turner — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Nico Hoerner — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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