Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-30

STL @ PIT

Home plate: Brian O'Nora

“Somebody's pitching staff sent a thank-you note.”

C
Umpire Grade
89.6% accurate
1.8
Run Favor
runs, PIT
3
ABS Overturns
of 7 reviewed

What this shows — how Brian O'Nora called the 193 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 173 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jordan Walker — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Henry Davis — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Pedro Pagés — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Spencer Horwitz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Henry Davis — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).6Challenge 7: Bryan Reynolds — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).7
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▼1 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Oneil Cruz vs Hunter Dobbins
  2. 2+0.39▼9 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Bryan Reynolds vs Matt Svanson
  3. 3+0.30▼4 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Nick Gonzales vs Hunter Dobbins

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

7 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Jordan Walker — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Henry Davis — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Pedro Pagés — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Spencer Horwitz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Iván Herrera — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  6. 6Henry Davis — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  7. 7Bryan Reynolds — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 6 of 7 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.