Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-04

BAL @ NYY

Home plate: Mike Estabrook

Reliable as a Tuesday: no complaints, no headlines.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.2% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, BAL
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Mike Estabrook called the 147 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 137 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Austin Wells — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Jazz Chisholm Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Austin Wells — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Trent Grisham — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.281 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Aaron Judge vs Shane Baz
  2. 2+0.237 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Gunnar Henderson vs Tim Hill
  3. 3-0.201 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs Shane Baz

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Austin Wells — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Jazz Chisholm Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Austin Wells — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Trent Grisham — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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