Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-26

TB @ BAL

Home plate: Ryan Wills

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.3% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, BAL
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Ryan Wills called the 122 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 115 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Hunter Feduccia — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Shane Baz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.132 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Jeremiah Jackson vs Griffin Jax
  2. 2+0.134 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Cedric Mullins vs Shane Baz
  3. 3+0.132 · 1-0 strike called ball· challenged
    Taylor Ward vs Griffin Jax

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Hunter Feduccia — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Shane Baz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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