Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-24

BOS @ COL

Home plate: Brennan Miller

Corner-to-corner and then some.

D
Umpire Grade
86.2% accurate
1.0
Run Favor
runs, BOS
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Brennan Miller called the 123 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 106 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Cole Carrigg — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Ceddanne Rafaela — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Braxton Fulford — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Carlos Narváez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Mickey Gasper — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.396 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Braxton Fulford vs Ranger Suarez
  2. 2+0.287 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    TJ Rumfield vs Tyron Guerrero
  3. 3-0.235 · 0-2 ball called strike
    Cole Carrigg vs Ranger Suarez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Cole Carrigg — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Ceddanne Rafaela — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Braxton Fulford — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Carlos Narváez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Mickey Gasper — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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