Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-27

ATH @ LAA

Home plate: Nick Mahrley

“Solid and unspectacular — exactly what the job asks.”

A-
Umpire Grade
94.8% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, ATH
3
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nick Mahrley called the 135 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 128 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Nolan Schanuel — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Jack Perkins — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲8 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Lawrence Butler vs Sam Bachman
  2. 2+0.13▲4 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Lawrence Butler vs Reid Detmers
  3. 3+0.10▲3 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Henry Bolte vs Reid Detmers

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 0 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Jonah Heim — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Nolan Schanuel — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Jack Perkins — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 0 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.