Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-02

CIN @ MIL

Home plate: Dan Merzel

Nothing that'll trend, and on this beat that's a compliment.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, CIN
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 158 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 151 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Sal Stewart — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Eugenio Suárez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.698 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Christian Yelich vs Sam Moll
  2. 2-0.238 · 0-2 ball called strike
    Brice Turang vs Tejay Antone
  3. 3-0.216 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Christian Yelich vs Chase Burns

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Sal Stewart — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Eugenio Suárez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Jose Trevino — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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