Chase Burns

The card rack

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FlagshipChase Burns [Red Rookie Variation] #3 · 2026 Bowman · 204 recent sales 7N ▼3.5%

$3.26Raw$15.10PSA 9$44.61PSA 10$58.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$1.35Ungraded$1.99Ungraded$2.49Ungraded

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The rookieChase Burns #BST-10 · 2026 Bowman Sterling · 471 recent sales 7N ▲1.7%

$1.81Raw$33.00PSA 9$38.56PSA 10$50.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded$1.00Ungraded$1.00Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 11, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Born in Naples, Italy, and taken in the first round just last year, Burns reached the majors by June 2025 and has 185 strikeouts in 154.1 innings for Cincinnati. The engine holds him ungraded — our stuff model is stability-tested but not outcome-validated, so no arm gets a board flag from it. The ERA-FIP luck gap cleared the bar, so we file a regression call by hand. At 23, the arm is the story; the grade waits.

Note written Oct 10 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Burns is in the Index ungraded, on purpose: our stuff model is stability-tested but not outcome-validated, so no big-league arm gets a board flag from it — not even one of the best seasons in the sport. (Calls are another matter: the ERA-FIP luck gap did clear the bar, and we file arm regression calls by hand from it.) The page is here because the player matters; the board grade waits for the science.

WAR (season · MLB calc)

4.3

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of June 29, 2025.

2026 salary

$2.79M

Tax hit

$15.00M

Service time

1 yr 97 d

Guaranteed

$105M

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Cincinnati Reds.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$0.79M

Guaranteed

$0.79M

Term

1 yr

His class

Pre-Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Chase Burns

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Chase Burns

The scouting press, in their own words