MLB · P · Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
B/T R/R · 6' 3" · 210 lb · born Naples, Italy · age 23 · draft 2024 rd 1 · played P 25 · MLB debut 2025-06-24
Last 14 days (through 2026-08-27): 3 G · 15.2 IP · 4.02 ERA · 21 SO · 1.40 WHIP
567 batters faced scored this season His season card →
The card rack
FlagshipChase Burns [Red Rookie Variation] #3 · 2026 Bowman · 520 recent sales 7N ▲6.7%
Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links
The rookieChase Burns #BST-10 · 2026 Bowman Sterling · 625 recent sales 7N ▲0.5%
Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links
Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of August 27, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean
Scout’s note
Born in Naples, Italy, Burns was the 2024 first-rounder, now 23, with a WAR of 4.2. His 2.51 ERA ranks sixth in the sport, and 159 strikeouts in 136 innings say the stuff plays. The engine holds the board grade on purpose: the stuff model isn't outcome-validated for MLB arms, but the ERA-FIP luck gap cleared the bar for a regression call, filed by hand. Fourteen wins, third in baseball, from a 6'3", 210-pound frame that's only getting started.
We wrote about Burns here — The Overnight: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (August 14, 2026) · The Buzz July 23, 2026 · The Overnight: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB (May 14, 2026)
Current signals
The read: Burns is in the Index ungraded, on purpose: our stuff model is stability-tested but not outcome-validated, so no big-league arm gets a board flag from it — not even one of the best seasons in the sport. (Calls are another matter: the ERA-FIP luck gap did clear the bar, and we file arm regression calls by hand from it.) The page is here because the player matters; the board grade waits for the science.
What he’s paid
Under contractA market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of .
- 2026 salary
- $0.79M
- Tax hit
- $0.79M
- Service time
- 0 yr 97 d
- Guaranteed
- $105M
The deal 7 years $105M (2027–2033) — $15.0M a year on average, worked out by us rather than stated on the sheet, and not the same thing as the tax hit above
On the sheet: 1 y/$785,000 (26) 7 y/$105 (27-33) · agent Vayner Spts · 3 / 3 options left
After this season, as the sheet has it
| Season | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $2.8M | $8.3M | $12.8M | $15.3M |
| Tax hit | $15.0M | $15.0M | $15.0M | $15.0M |
Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Cincinnati Reds.
A second set of books
The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of . We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.
- Tax AAV
- $0.79M
- Guaranteed
- $0.79M
- Term
- 1 yr
- His class
- Pre-Arb
What the sheet prices each season at
| Season | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Minimum | $2.5M | $8.0M | $12.5M | $15.0M | $17.0M | $23.0M | $25.0M |
A base salary under his own reading, and never subtracted from the cash figure above: a signing bonus lands in one and not the other, so the two disagree on most men without either being wrong. And the sheet does not mark which future seasons are GUARANTEED — a club option and a projected arbitration award are both just a number here, so read past the end of the deal as his forecast rather than as money owed.
The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.
Collect Chase Burns
If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:
Chase Burns cards on eBay →Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases.
Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.
The Bureau on Chase Burns
The scouting press, in their own words
The ping pong ball combo for the Reds' pick that year were 10-14-8-11. Yes Chase Burns was the second pick but if the No. 2 ping bong ball had come up the Reds had no way of winning that pick. https://t.co/p8qHrE1GqX https://t.co/olWCrYBAuC
Roch Cholowsky's $10.35 million bonus from the @WhiteSox eclipses the former @MLBDraft record of $9.3 million set by Chase Burns & Charlie Condon in 2024. Here's a list of the largest bonuses in Draft history: https://t.co/fWK29JzD79
No. 1 overall pick Roch Cholowsky has passed his physical & will sign with @WhiteSox for $10.35 million (slot value = $11,350,600). Shatters @MLBDraft bonus record of $9.3 mil set by Chase Burns & Charlie Condon in 2024. Best all-around college shortstop since Troy Tulowitzki. https://t.co/PdEEto6SBv
Umpire favor
-1.8 net runs over 21 graded games — the zone cost him more than it gave, on balance.
The line
| Year | Team | Lvl | G | IP | W–L | SV | ERA | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 13 | 43.1 | 0–3 | 0 | 4.57 | 67 | 1.32 |
| 2026 | Cincinnati Reds | MLB | 25 | 139.2 | 14–3 | 0 | 2.77 | 164 | 1.15 |
| MLB CAREER | 38 | 183.0 | 14–6 | 0 | 3.20 | 231 | 1.19 | ||
Bio & season lines: MLB StatsAPI · refreshed nightly · abbreviations →