Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-08

AZ @ SD

Home plate: Willie Traynor

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.9% accurate
0.0
Run Favor
runs, AZ
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Willie Traynor called the 143 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 130 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Luis Campusano — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Luis Campusano — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Gabriel Moreno — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Gabriel Moreno — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.207 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Nolan Arenado vs Ron Marinaccio
  2. 2-0.196 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Corbin Carroll vs Michael King
  3. 3+0.134 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Gabriel Moreno vs Michael King

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Luis Campusano — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Luis Campusano — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Gabriel Moreno — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Gabriel Moreno — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

Paste the link anywhere — the card previews on its own. Or take it with you.

Post on X