Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-18

SD @ KC

Home plate: Willie Traynor

A steady night's work behind the plate.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.5
Run Favor
runs, SD
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Willie Traynor called the 136 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 130 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Freddy Fermin — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.395 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Carter Jensen vs Matt Waldron
  2. 2+0.101 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Manny Machado vs Randy Dobnak
  3. 3+0.103 · 0-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Randy Dobnak

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Freddy Fermin — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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