Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-20

BAL @ BOS

Home plate: Stu Scheurwater

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.2% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, BAL
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Stu Scheurwater called the 103 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 96 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Ceddanne Rafaela — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Tyler O'Neill — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Connor Wong — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Colton Cowser — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.236 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Gunnar Henderson vs Payton Tolle
  2. 2-0.132 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Masataka Yoshida vs Shane Baz
  3. 3+0.137 · 1-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Tyler O'Neill vs Tyron Guerrero

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Ceddanne Rafaela — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Tyler O'Neill — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Connor Wong — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Colton Cowser — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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