Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-24

HOU @ CWS

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A
Umpire Grade
95.3% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, CWS
1
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 170 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 162 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Christian Vázquez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Drew Romo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Isaac Paredes — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Christian Vázquez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Drew Romo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.287 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Lucas Spence vs Trevor Richards
  2. 2-0.133 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Christian Vázquez vs Davis Martin
  3. 3+0.136 · 1-0 strike called ball· challenged
    LaMonte Wade Jr. vs Davis Martin

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Christian Vázquez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Drew Romo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Isaac Paredes — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Christian Vázquez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Drew Romo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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