Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-25

COL @ MIL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

Nothing that'll trend, and on this beat that's a compliment.

B+
Umpire Grade
94.0% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, COL
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 149 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 140 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Braxton Fulford — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: William Contreras — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.397 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Jake Bauers vs Tanner Gordon
  2. 2+0.287 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Brett Sullivan vs Chad Patrick
  3. 3-0.237 · 0-2 ball called strike
    William Contreras vs Tanner Gordon

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Braxton Fulford — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3William Contreras — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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