Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-31

PHI @ BAL

Home plate: Derek Thomas

Pitchers earned every strike the hard way.

B
Umpire Grade
92.3% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, PHI
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Derek Thomas called the 156 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 144 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Yohel Pozo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Yohel Pozo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.696 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Taylor Ward vs Andrew Painter
  2. 2+0.286 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Bryson Stott vs Josh Walker
  3. 3-0.233 · 0-2 ball called strike
    Gunnar Henderson vs Andrew Painter

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Yohel Pozo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2J.T. Realmuto — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Yohel Pozo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

Paste the link anywhere — the card previews on its own. Or take it with you.

Share on X