Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-04

MIN @ KC

Home plate: Willie Traynor

Solid and unspectacular — exactly what the job asks.

A
Umpire Grade
95.2% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, MIN
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Willie Traynor called the 166 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 158 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Bobby Witt Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Isaac Collins — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.693 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Ryan Kreidler vs Randy Dobnak
  2. 2-0.397 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Luke Keaschall vs John Schreiber
  3. 3+0.203 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Ryan Kreidler vs Randy Dobnak

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carter Jensen — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Ryan Jeffers — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Bobby Witt Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Isaac Collins — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Ryan Jeffers — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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