Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-05

ATH @ CIN

Home plate: Will Little

A workmanlike night — nothing to frame, nothing to fix.

B
Umpire Grade
92.7% accurate
0.0
Run Favor
runs, ATH
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Will Little called the 124 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 115 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Donovan Walton — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Henry Bolte — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.394 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Donovan Walton vs Rhett Lowder
  2. 2+0.233 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Elly De La Cruz vs Jacob Lopez
  3. 3-0.139 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Jonah Heim vs Emilio Pagán

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jonah Heim — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Donovan Walton — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Henry Bolte — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Jose Trevino — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Jose Trevino — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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