Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-09

CIN @ WSH

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A
Umpire Grade
95.5% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, CIN
3
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 132 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 126 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.106 · 0-1 ball called strike
    Nasim Nuñez vs Brady Singer
  2. 2-0.092 · 0-0 ball called strike
    Dylan Crews vs Brady Singer
  3. 3+0.092 · 0-0 strike called ball
    Jacob Young vs Brady Singer

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 0 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Tyler Stephenson — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Tyler Stephenson — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Tyler Stephenson — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 0 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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