Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-12

HOU @ SF

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.7% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, HOU
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 133 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 126 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Christian Vázquez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Daulton Varsho — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Cam Smith — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.205 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Drew Gilbert vs AJ Blubaugh
  2. 2-0.138 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Osleivis Basabe vs Bryan Abreu
  3. 3-0.092 · 0-0 ball called strike
    Rafael Devers vs Tatsuya Imai

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Christian Vázquez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Daulton Varsho — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Cam Smith — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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