Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-15

TEX @ ATH

Home plate: Jacob Metz

Borderline went to the battery all night.

B
Umpire Grade
92.8% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, TEX
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Jacob Metz called the 139 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 129 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Austin Wynns — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Brian Serven — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Brian Serven — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.209 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Jake Burger vs Scott Blewett
  2. 2-0.192 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Evan Carter vs J.T. Ginn
  3. 3-0.194 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Alika Williams vs MacKenzie Gore

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Austin Wynns — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Brian Serven — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Brian Serven — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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