Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-17

STL @ CIN

Home plate: Vic Carapazza

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A
Umpire Grade
96.0% accurate
0.9
Run Favor
runs, STL
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Vic Carapazza called the 175 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 168 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Michael Toglia — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Everson Pereira — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Elly De La Cruz — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.396 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Everson Pereira vs Luis Mey
  2. 2-0.194 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Matt McLain vs Quinn Mathews
  3. 3+0.131 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Iván Herrera vs Kent Emanuel

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Michael Toglia — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Everson Pereira — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Elly De La Cruz — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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