Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-17

STL @ CIN

Home plate: Nic Lentz

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.2% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, CIN
4
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Nic Lentz called the 154 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 145 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Elly De La Cruz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Sal Stewart — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: José Fermín — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.397 · 2-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Elly De La Cruz vs Peter Strzelecki
  2. 2+0.237 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Iván Herrera vs Rhett Lowder
  3. 3+0.1910 · 2-0 strike called ball· challenged
    José Fermín vs Emilio Pagán

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jose Trevino — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Jose Trevino — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Elly De La Cruz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Sal Stewart — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5José Fermín — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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