Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-30

PIT @ STL

Home plate: Willie Traynor

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.5% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, PIT
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Willie Traynor called the 168 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 152 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Rafael Flores Jr. — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Rafael Flores Jr. — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Ramón Urías — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.398 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Spencer Horwitz vs Gordon Graceffo
  2. 2-0.302 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Spencer Horwitz vs Matthew Liberatore
  3. 3-0.302 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Nick Yorke vs Matthew Liberatore

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Rafael Flores Jr. — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Rafael Flores Jr. — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Ramón Urías — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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