Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-02

ATH @ TEX

Home plate: Nic Lentz

“Textbook top to bottom — a quiet masterclass.”

A
Umpire Grade
96.4% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, ATH
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nic Lentz called the 167 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 161 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jake Burger — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Brian Serven — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Brandon Nimmo — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲2 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Alika Williams vs Cody Bradford
  2. 2-0.21▲9 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Brian Serven vs Ben Peoples
  3. 3+0.13▼2 · 1-0 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Elias Díaz vs Jacob Lopez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jake Burger — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Brian Serven — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Brandon Nimmo — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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