Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-02

MIA @ KC

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

A steady night's work behind the plate.

A
Umpire Grade
95.4% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, MIA
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 175 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 167 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Kyle Stowers — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Joe Mack — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.285 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Vinnie Pasquantino vs Eury Pérez
  2. 2-0.285 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Kyle Isbel vs Cade Gibson
  3. 3+0.232 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Esteury Ruiz vs Noah Cameron

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Kyle Stowers — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Joe Mack — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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