Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-05

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A
Umpire Grade
95.2% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, TOR
0
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Shane Livensparger called the 146 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 139 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Bobby Witt Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.191 · 2-0 ball called strike
    John Rave vs Max Scherzer
  2. 2+0.192 · 2-0 strike called ball
    Brett Bateman vs Seth Lugo
  3. 3-0.103 · 0-1 ball called strike
    Salvador Perez vs Max Scherzer

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 0 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Alejandro Kirk — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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