Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-05

“An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.”

A
Umpire Grade
95.2% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, TOR
0
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Shane Livensparger called the 146 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 139 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Bobby Witt Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.19▼1 · 2-0 ball called strike
    John Rave vs Max Scherzer
  2. 2+0.19▲2 · 2-0 strike called ball
    Brett Bateman vs Seth Lugo
  3. 3-0.10▼3 · 0-1 ball called strike
    Salvador Perez vs Max Scherzer

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 0 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Alejandro Kirk — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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