Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-06

TOR @ KC

Home plate: Dan Merzel

The plate grew a few inches after the first pitch.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.7% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, KC
4
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 162 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 147 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Myles Straw — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Nick Loftin — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Brandon Valenzuela — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Brandon Valenzuela — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Luke Maile — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.698 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Connor Thomas
  2. 2-0.217 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Luke Maile vs Ricky Tiedemann
  3. 3-0.207 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Nick Loftin vs Ricky Tiedemann

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Myles Straw — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Nick Loftin — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Brandon Valenzuela — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Brandon Valenzuela — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Luke Maile — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  6. 6Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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