Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-07

AZ @ KC

Home plate: Lance Barksdale

“The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.”

C+
Umpire Grade
90.7% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, AZ
4
ABS Overturns
of 7 reviewed

What this shows — how Lance Barksdale called the 161 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 146 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Gabriel Moreno — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Gabriel Moreno — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Salvador Perez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Geraldo Perdomo — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).6Challenge 7: Nick Loftin — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).7
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.28▲3 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Jordan Lawlar vs Noah Cameron
  2. 2-0.23▼8 · 0-2 ball called strike
    Carter Jensen vs Brandyn Garcia
  3. 3-0.20▼4 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Vinnie Pasquantino vs Jose Cabrera

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

7 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Gabriel Moreno — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Gabriel Moreno — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Salvador Perez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Geraldo Perdomo — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  6. 6Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  7. 7Nick Loftin — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 7 of 7 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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