Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-07

TOR @ ATH

Home plate: Chad Fairchild

A tilt to the evening — the numbers say which way.

D
Umpire Grade
88.5% accurate
1.4
Run Favor
runs, ATH
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Chad Fairchild called the 157 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 139 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Zack Gelof — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Myles Straw — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.231 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Max Muncy vs Dylan Cease
  2. 2+0.213 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Henry Bolte vs Dylan Cease
  3. 3-0.202 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Myles Straw vs Jacob Lopez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Zack Gelof — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Jonah Heim — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Myles Straw — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Alejandro Kirk — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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