Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-08

NYM @ MIA

Home plate: Mike Estabrook

“Hawkeye did more talking than the umpire tonight.”

C
Umpire Grade
89.3% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, NYM
5
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Mike Estabrook called the 150 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 134 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Otto Lopez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Jared Serna — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Brian Navarreto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Deyvison De Los Santos — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Jakob Marsee — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.19▲7 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Marcus Semien vs Dax Fulton
  2. 2+0.13▼2 · 1-1 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Javier Sanoja vs Sean Manaea
  3. 3-0.13▼4 · 1-1 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Otto Lopez vs Sean Manaea

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 5 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Otto Lopez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Jared Serna — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Brian Navarreto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Deyvison De Los Santos — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  6. 6Jakob Marsee — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 6 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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