Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-09

AZ @ KC

Home plate: Will Little

“Corner-to-corner and then some.”

B+
Umpire Grade
93.6% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, AZ
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Will Little called the 156 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 146 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Nick Loftin — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: James McCann — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Nick Loftin — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Carter Jensen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.20▲3 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Ildemaro Vargas vs Daniel Lynch IV
  2. 2+0.20▼3 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Vinnie Pasquantino vs Zac Gallen
  3. 3-0.13▼1 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Carter Jensen vs Zac Gallen

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Nick Loftin — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2James McCann — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Nick Loftin — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Carter Jensen — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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