Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

PIT @ CHC

Home plate: Derek Thomas

“Somebody's pitching staff sent a thank-you note.”

C+
Umpire Grade
90.6% accurate
1.3
Run Favor
runs, CHC
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Derek Thomas called the 138 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 125 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Henry Davis — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Henry Davis — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Rafael Flores Jr. — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.30▼7 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Michael Busch vs Antwone Kelly
  2. 2+0.28▼8 · 1-2 strike called ball
    BJ Murray Jr. vs Antwone Kelly
  3. 3+0.20▼3 · 2-1 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Seiya Suzuki vs Khristian Curtis

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carson Kelly — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Henry Davis — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Henry Davis — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Rafael Flores Jr. — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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