Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

PIT @ CHC

Home plate: Derek Thomas

Somebody's pitching staff sent a thank-you note.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.6% accurate
1.3
Run Favor
runs, CHC
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Derek Thomas called the 138 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 125 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Henry Davis — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Henry Davis — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Rafael Flores Jr. — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.307 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Michael Busch vs Antwone Kelly
  2. 2+0.288 · 1-2 strike called ball
    BJ Murray Jr. vs Antwone Kelly
  3. 3+0.203 · 2-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Seiya Suzuki vs Khristian Curtis

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carson Kelly — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Henry Davis — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Henry Davis — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Rafael Flores Jr. — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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