Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

SEA @ ATH

Home plate: Alex Tosi

“Called a fair game and let the players decide it.”

A+
Umpire Grade
97.5% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, SEA
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Alex Tosi called the 161 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 157 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: George Kirby — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed). Our tracking puts it on the other side of the line; the grade follows the ruling.2*Challenge 3: Lawrence Butler — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Zack Gelof — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled). Our tracking puts it on the other side of the line; the grade follows the ruling.4*Challenge 5: Lazaro Montes — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

* Graded on the ABS ruling. ABS measures its own zone, set by the batter’s height and taken at the middle of the plate, and our tracking puts this pitch on the other side of the line.

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.30▲2 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Taylor Ward vs Jeffrey Springs
  2. 2-0.13▼7 · 1-1 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Zack Gelof vs José A. Ferrer
  3. 3+0.10▼9 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Jeff McNeil vs Carlos Vargas

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jonah Heim — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2George Kirby — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Lawrence Butler — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Zack Gelof — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Lazaro Montes — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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