Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-14

MIA @ AZ

Home plate: Austin Jones

Textbook top to bottom — a quiet masterclass.

A
Umpire Grade
96.8% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, MIA
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Austin Jones called the 186 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 180 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Joe Mack — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Joe Mack — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Kevin Ginkel — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Esteury Ruiz — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.394 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Pavin Smith vs Sandy Alcantara
  2. 2+0.208 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Tim Tawa vs Tyler Zuber
  3. 3-0.134 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Pavin Smith vs Sandy Alcantara

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Joe Mack — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Joe Mack — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Kevin Ginkel — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Esteury Ruiz — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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