Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-24

MIL @ PHI

Home plate: Dan Merzel

“The players kept asking for a second opinion — and kept getting one.”

B
Umpire Grade
92.0% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, MIL
5
ABS Overturns
of 8 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 175 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 161 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Justin Crawford — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Gary Sánchez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Alec Bohm — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).6Challenge 7: Garrett Mitchell — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).7Challenge 8: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).8
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲7 · 2-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Joey Ortiz vs Alex McFarlane
  2. 2+0.23▲8 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Sal Frelick vs Chase Shugart
  3. 3-0.21▲2 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Gary Sánchez vs Andrew Painter

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

8 pitches went to the robots · 5 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Justin Crawford — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Gary Sánchez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Alec Bohm — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  6. 6J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  7. 7Garrett Mitchell — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  8. 8J.T. Realmuto — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 8 of 8 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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