Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-25

CIN @ TOR

Home plate: Adrian Johnson

“Corner-to-corner and then some.”

C+
Umpire Grade
90.6% accurate
0.5
Run Favor
runs, CIN
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Adrian Johnson called the 159 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 144 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Jose Trevino — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.20▼3 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Kazuma Okamoto vs Nick Lodolo
  2. 2-0.20▼7 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Josh Smith vs Pierce Johnson
  3. 3+0.13▼5 · 1-1 strike called ball
    George Springer vs Nick Lodolo

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Alejandro Kirk — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Alejandro Kirk — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Jose Trevino — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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