Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-27

TEX @ MIN

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“You had to throw it down Broadway to get the call.”

D
Umpire Grade
88.2% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, MIN
2
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 127 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 112 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Walker Jenkins — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Danny Jansen — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Brooks Lee — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Jake Burger — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.69▼1 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Luke Keaschall vs MacKenzie Gore
  2. 2+0.28▲2 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Ezequiel Duran vs Dean Kremer
  3. 3+0.20▲9 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Jake Burger vs Andrew Morris

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Ryan Jeffers — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Ryan Jeffers — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Walker Jenkins — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Danny Jansen — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Brooks Lee — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  6. 6Jake Burger — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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