Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-10-12

CLE @ TB

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“Not his sharpest evening behind the plate.”

B-
Umpire Grade
91.2% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, CLE
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 125 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 114 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Liam Hicks — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Patrick Bailey — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Steven Kwan — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲8 · 2-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Patrick Bailey vs Ian Seymour
  2. 2-0.30▼6 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Ryan Vilade vs Joey Cantillo
  3. 3-0.13▼3 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Junior Caminero vs Foster Griffin

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Liam Hicks — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Patrick Bailey — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Steven Kwan — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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