Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record

A second set of books

Every contract on this site is read twice, by two publishers who do not talk to each other. On the 851 deals where both state a total guarantee for the same span, they agree to the dollar 834 times — 98.0%. These are the 17 that do not.

This is the whole reason a second source is worth paying for: one reading of a fact cannot catch its own error. We are not adjudicating these. Both figures are printed in full, with both publishers’ year counts and both dates, because a dollar gap without those is a number nobody can interpret — and because on 2 of these rows the two are not describing the same span of seasons at all.

1,281 contracts confirmed of 1,350 on the sheet · 851 comparable · 24 refused as different contracts

His sheet as of · the workbook’s date, not the tab’s

MLB SpreadsheetsCot’s
PlayerTermGuaranteeTermGuaranteeDatedApart
Nolan Arenado AZ9 yr$275,000,0008 yr$260,000,000$15,000,000
Bryan Reynolds PIT7 yr$100,000,0008 yr$106,750,000$6,750,000
Randal Grichuk CWS1 yr$1,250,0001 yr$2,500,000$1,250,000
Taylor Walls TB1 yr$1,400,0001 yr$2,450,000$1,050,000
Yusei Kikuchi LAA3 yr$63,000,0003 yr$63,675,000$675,000
Cedric Mullins TB1 yr$7,500,0001 yr$7,000,000$500,000
Gary Sánchez MIL1 yr$1,750,0001 yr$1,500,000$250,000
Carlos Estévez KC2 yr$22,200,0002 yr$22,000,000$200,000
Leody Taveras BAL1 yr$2,100,0001 yr$2,000,000$100,000
Bryce Miller SEA1 yr$2,452,5001 yr$2,542,500$90,000
Ryan Mountcastle BAL1 yr$6,787,0001 yr$6,870,000$83,000
Bobby Witt Jr. KC11 yr$288,777,77711 yr$288,700,000$77,777
Ryan Zeferjahn CHC1 yr$800,0001 yr$780,000$20,000
Tyler Wells TB1 yr$2,455,0001 yr$2,445,000$10,000
AJ Blubaugh HOU1 yr$787,7001 yr$790,700$3,000
Matthew Liberatore STL1 yr$2,262,5001 yr$2,260,000$2,500
Isaac Mattson PIT1 yr$792,4001 yr$794,200$1,800

the two publishers bracket this deal over a different number of seasons. One contract, counted two ways — read the gap as the seasons they disagree about, not as a claim that either total is wrong.

What is deliberately not on this board

Two other columns look comparable and are not, and both were measured before being refused rather than after being published.

  • The two AAVs. They match on 808 of 876 rows, which reads like a validated column and is not one. His is a tax AAV, present-valued; ours is the guarantee divided by the years. They coincide wherever a contract defers nothing and diverge by construction exactly where it does — Shohei Ohtani is $70,000,000 by division and $46,076,769 on his sheet, and neither is an error. There is no function on this site that subtracts them.
  • The per-season salaries. 160 agreements out of 336, on contracts both sources have right: a signing bonus lands in one figure and not the other. Same ruling, same reason.
  • The 24 rows where the two are describing different contracts. An extension that starts next season, or a deal that ended last one. Printed raw, the first of those is a $114,106,000 “disagreement” between two sources that are both right. The engine refuses them by name.

Second source: MLB Spreadsheets · Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets) · mlbspreadsheets.substack.com