Bryan Baker

The card rack

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Scout’s note

Baker, 31, from Fort Walton Beach, Florida, was an 11th-rounder in 2016 who didn't reach the majors until 2021 and has 297 career strikeouts in 270 MLB games — all but 63 of them in relief. This season for Tampa Bay: 63 strikeouts, a 1.44 ERA over 62.1 innings, and 41 saves, first in baseball. He's Index-ungraded — the stuff model isn't outcome-validated, so no arm gets a board flag. The ERA-FIP luck gap cleared the bar; regression calls are filed by hand. The page is here because a man leading the league in saves at 31 matters.

Note written Oct 7 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Baker is in the Index ungraded, on purpose: our stuff model is stability-tested but not outcome-validated, so no big-league arm gets a board flag from it — not even one of the best seasons in the sport. (Calls are another matter: the ERA-FIP luck gap did clear the bar, and we file arm regression calls by hand from it.) The page is here because the player matters; the board grade waits for the science.

WAR (season · MLB calc)

1.3

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of December 16, 2023.

2026 salary

$3.77M

Tax hit

$3.77M

Service time

4 yr 49 d

Options left

0 / 3

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Tampa Bay Rays.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$1.27M

Guaranteed

$1.27M

Term

1 yr

His class

Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

The Wire

▲ On the field: Filthiest pitches: Trevor Megill, Griffin Jax, Tyler Glasnow, Robert Gasser and Bryan Baker.

X chatter, trailing 2 days · as of 2026-10-10 · newest post 2026-10-08 · summarized by Grok (xAI) · how this works →

Collect Bryan Baker

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Bryan Baker

The scouting press, in their own words