Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-03-26

PIT @ NYM

Home plate: Adrian Johnson

The grade leaned — the ledger says which way.

B-
Umpire Grade
91.5% accurate
1.0
Run Favor
runs, PIT
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Adrian Johnson called the 165 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 151 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Marcus Semien — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.693 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Oneil Cruz vs Freddy Peralta
  2. 2-0.211 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Francisco Lindor vs Paul Skenes
  3. 3-0.209 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Ryan O'Hearn vs Luis García

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Marcus Semien — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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