Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-04

STL @ DET

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

“A workmanlike night — nothing to frame, nothing to fix.”

A-
Umpire Grade
94.6% accurate
0.9
Run Favor
runs, DET
4
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 186 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 176 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Dillon Dingler — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Pedro Pagés — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Kevin McGonigle — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.30▼8 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Kevin McGonigle vs Chris Roycroft
  2. 2+0.28▼5 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Dillon Dingler vs Matt Svanson
  3. 3-0.20▲6 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Iván Herrera vs Brant Hurter

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 0 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Dillon Dingler — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Pedro Pagés — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Kevin McGonigle — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.