Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-13

CHC @ PHI

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

The strike zone picked a side, and wasn't shy about it.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.4% accurate
1.3
Run Favor
runs, PHI
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 182 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 170 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Miguel Amaya — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: J.T. Realmuto — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.693 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Brandon Marsh vs Javier Assad
  2. 2-0.391 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Nico Hoerner vs Cristopher Sánchez
  3. 3+0.306 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Bryce Harper vs Charlie Barnes

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Miguel Amaya — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2J.T. Realmuto — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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