Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-29

SEA @ MIN

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

The plate grew a few inches after the first pitch.

B
Umpire Grade
92.6% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, SEA
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 176 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 163 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Cal Raleigh — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Luke Keaschall — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Matt Wallner — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Kody Clemens — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.285 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Dominic Canzone vs Taj Bradley
  2. 2-0.236 · 0-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Luke Keaschall vs George Kirby
  3. 3+0.134 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Josh Naylor vs Taj Bradley

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Ryan Jeffers — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Cal Raleigh — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Luke Keaschall — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Matt Wallner — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Kody Clemens — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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