Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-12

SD @ MIL

Home plate: Ryan Additon

The grade leaned — the ledger says which way.

D
Umpire Grade
88.5% accurate
1.1
Run Favor
runs, SD
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Ryan Additon called the 131 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 116 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Freddy Fermin — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.696 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Nick Castellanos vs Shane Drohan
  2. 2+0.309 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Ramón Laureano vs Abner Uribe
  3. 3+0.212 · 3-0 strike called ball
    William Contreras vs Matt Waldron

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Freddy Fermin — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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