Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-27

CHC @ PIT

Home plate: Dan Merzel

“The zone kept its promises.”

B
Umpire Grade
92.6% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, CHC
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 176 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 163 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Michael Busch — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Bubba Chandler — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Oneil Cruz — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Nico Hoerner — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.30▲1 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Michael Busch vs Bubba Chandler
  2. 2-0.20▼4 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Oneil Cruz vs Jameson Taillon
  3. 3-0.13▼5 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Brandon Lowe vs Jameson Taillon

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Michael Busch — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Bubba Chandler — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Oneil Cruz — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Carson Kelly — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Nico Hoerner — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.