Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-10

CHC @ COL

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

“If umpiring had a highlight reel, this wouldn't make it. That's the compliment.”

A
Umpire Grade
96.5% accurate
0.1
Run Favor
runs, CHC
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 144 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 139 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Hunter Goodman — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Moisés Ballesteros — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: TJ Rumfield — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Michael Conforto — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.21▼1 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Hunter Goodman vs Shota Imanaga
  2. 2-0.20▼5 · 2-1 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Chad Stevens vs Shota Imanaga
  3. 3+0.13▲4 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Alex Bregman vs Michael Lorenzen

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Hunter Goodman — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Moisés Ballesteros — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3TJ Rumfield — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Michael Conforto — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.