Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-16

SD @ STL

Home plate: Nic Lentz

The strike zone picked a side, and wasn't shy about it.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.6% accurate
1.7
Run Favor
runs, STL
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nic Lentz called the 149 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 135 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Rodolfo Durán — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.692 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Lars Nootbaar vs Michael King
  2. 2-0.693 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Rodolfo Durán vs Andre Pallante
  3. 3+0.697 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Gavin Sheets vs Andre Pallante

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Rodolfo Durán — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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