Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-04

MIA @ ATH

Home plate: Jordan Baker

“Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.”

B+
Umpire Grade
93.2% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, ATH
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Jordan Baker called the 162 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 151 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Lawrence Butler — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Javier Sanoja — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Joe Mack — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.69▼8 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Nick Kurtz vs Sandy Alcantara
  2. 2-0.39▲4 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Jakob Marsee vs Aaron Civale
  3. 3+0.20▲1 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Kyle Stowers vs Aaron Civale

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Lawrence Butler — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Jonah Heim — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Javier Sanoja — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Joe Mack — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.