Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-09

MIL @ STL

Home plate: Todd Tichenor

Down the middle. Both dugouts had the same zone.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.6% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, MIL
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Todd Tichenor called the 167 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 158 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Jake Bauers — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Iván Herrera — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.287 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Jake Bauers vs Gordon Graceffo
  2. 2+0.134 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Jackson Chourio vs Andre Pallante
  3. 3-0.134 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Joey Ortiz vs Andre Pallante

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Jake Bauers — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Iván Herrera — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Iván Herrera — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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