Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-21

MIN @ CLE

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

Called a fair game and let the players decide it.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.1% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, MIN
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 145 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 135 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Austin Hedges — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Gabriel Arias — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Luke Keaschall — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Brayan Rocchio — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Ryan Jeffers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.306 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Steven Kwan vs Taylor Rogers
  2. 2+0.283 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Luke Keaschall vs Parker Messick
  3. 3-0.203 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Chase DeLauter vs Mike Paredes

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Austin Hedges — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Gabriel Arias — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Luke Keaschall — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Brayan Rocchio — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Ryan Jeffers — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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